Will the Panthers Make March Madness?

by Jordan Kooper

Ask any Panther fan in mid-January their thoughts on Pitt’s men’s basketball team, and they would probably tell you that this season is a lost cause. After a 69-58 loss to Syracuse on January 16th, Pitt owned a 1-5 record in ACC play, and seemed to be heading for an embarrassing down year. Just four days later, however, Blake Hinson memorably jumped on the scorer’s table at Cameron Indoor Stadium after Pitt stunned No. 8 Duke 80-76 on the road. Since then, the Panthers have been the hottest team in the conference, winning six of their past seven games. They’ve gotten so hot that the nation has been put on notice. Now, the question on every Pitt fan’s mind is… will they sneak into the NCAA Tournament?

Ever since that win against Duke, Pitt has been building their resume at breakneck speed. They’ve easily dispatched the teams they needed to beat, including Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Louisville, while earning important victories over Wake Forest and Virginia, ranked #21 at the time. That win against Virginia was especially crucial due to the wide 74-63 margin, which snapped the Cavaliers’ 23–game home winning streak, the longest in all of NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball. Their only loss in that stretch was to Miami on January 27th, but that should not have hurt them too much; although Miami ranks 12th in the conference, they’ve kept it close against respectable teams including UNC, NC State, and Syracuse.

The only real blemishes on Pitt’s resume are their two losses to Syracuse and their loss to Missouri at the start of the season. Fortunately for Pitt, Syracuse beat UNC on the same night they beat Virginia, making those losses more acceptable. As for Mizzou, that is harder to excuse due to the abysmal 0-12 record they obtain in the SEC- but it happened so long ago that the committee’s recency bias may end up negating it.

Pitt’s high level of play will certainly help to mask their early season struggles. Blake Hinson has been in a universe of his own, recently putting up a career-high 41 points against Louisville. Then there’s players like Jaland Lowe, who has averaged 13 points per game (PPG) since joining the starting lineup, and Carlton Carrington who’s averaging 13.1 PPG. Let’s not forget the contributions of Ishmael Leggett, one of the best sixth men in the ACC, and Federiko Federiko, who is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game in his past eight contests after struggling early in the season.

So what needs to happen for Pitt to make the tournament and compete in March? As of now, they rank #47 in the NCAA NET rankings, firmly within tournament range but not a definite lock. They even garnered four top-25 votes in the most recent AP Poll. Pitt has six games remaining in the regular season against Virginia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Florida State, N.C. State, and Wake Forest tonight. At minimum, they need to go 3-3, with wins against Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Boston College. Beating Clemson, N.C. State, and Wake would be the icing on the cake. That isn’t to say they can’t run the table; all these games are winnable. After that, they need to make themselves a force in the ACC Tournament, while strengthening their resume by making some noise there, especially if they retain a double-bye by staying in the top four.

As of yesterday, Pitt doesn’t factor into Joe Lundardi’s ESPN Bracketology rankings. But a win against Wake Forest should put them firmly within the Next Four Out category and knocking on the door of the Last Four Out. Based on Pitt’s current trajectory, they’ll rise up the Joe Lunardi bracketology rankings in no time. In summary, the nation needs to put some respect on Jeff Capel’s squad.